Reports from the Fog: Cuban Military analyst on Ukraine and Donbas 09_18

 

Theater of Military Operations (TMO) Day 207, 18/09/2022. 

On September 18, 1980, our Arnaldo Tamayo Méndez traveled with Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Romanenko on the Soyuz-38 spacecraft, which took off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and then docked to the Saliut-6 orbital station, where it remained for more than seven days.

Someone asked me, how could I know that the Ukrainians would make an offensive and say so a week before, well, it's not that complex, what I said is what I would do being in their place and to be frank, the Ukrainians don't have much to choose from, militarily. It's just a matter of looking at a map, on a very long front, in the photo does not appear Kharkiv, which was hit hard last night and today during the day, no one wonders how do the Russians manage to do it, today they hit more than yesterday. Since 9 days ago, when the Ukronazis advanced in the contest of placing little flags, they have not advanced a single centimeter, on the contrary, every day they lose, in particular in the Donbass.

Also Russia, as Putin said, has carried out two moves of strategic combative actions, which have caused more damage to Ukraine than the whole offensive realized by them, supposedly realized – and he stressed supposedly – because in practice, it has been nothing but a kind of psychological booster. They have not taken Yarova, Drobysheve, Lyman, Zarichne, Yampil, Kreminna, Pryvillia, Rubizhne or Biloharivka, to name a few, the whole east of Kupyansk is in Russian hands. But the worst thing is they know they committed an error. Yes when I said, "...that what really matters, is the north. If I were in their position, I would try to take Izyum and focus on the defense and recapture of Kharkov..." (08/31/2022). But that idea was as poisonous as possible, all those troops, they are not going to go to the Donbass, in fact, therefore they would have to conquer the first three cities on the list, which are in Donestk, and they have not been able to advance a meter, because they were dislocated, and today they hesitate, are we staying here guarding, or are we going to the front? If they go to the front, there they are going to be beaten hard, so they prefer to stay, but the high command tells them, for guarding we do not need you, but the militiamen of the territorial defense. And there the complications begin. 

The Ukrainians with military training, they know they are lost, their professional military, they know that the Russians are in a waiting phase, weaving a new order, they see it every day, the Yankee refusal to give them long-range ammunition for what is left of their HIMARS, which they know are nothingness itself, and Germany's refusal of the latest generation of tanks. They are not fools, there are some of them who believe in what they are doing, and coincidentally, they are the clearest about the future that awaits them. If this special military operation has not developed at a higher speed and higher rate of fire, it is because for Russia, in these now almost 7 months, it has not been convenient, and that is what many do not understand. 

How do you reconfigure the new international order on an outdated timeline? Learning that war "is the continuation of politics" is not only applicable for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but for any conflict, why Ukraine and not the Baltic countries or Finland? The answer has to do with ballistics. Russia under no circumstances could or can accept a Nazi Ukraine aligned with the West, which by itself is more and more Nazi. Why? Because Ukraine is a country of 603,000 km2, it is not the same to place nuclear weapons in 600 thousand than in 25 thousand, in the first one you can move, in the second one you cannot. Sooner or later, the Yankees will reach hypersonic speeds, even if it is at just Mach 5, which is the last thing they have tried and although they failed, they are not going to fail all their lives. The Russians are already at high hypersonic speeds and when the Yankees reach hypersonic, the Russians will go for atmospheric Reentry Velocities, which is the ultimate frontier.

The most recent test of a U.S. hypersonic weapon failed after an "anomaly" occurred during the first full system test, the Pentagon said Thursday. The test, conducted at the Pacific Missile Range facility in Hawaii, was to launch the common hypersonic glide body on a two-stage missile booster. The booster is designed to launch the system and accelerate it to hypersonic speeds in excess of Mach 5, at which point the glide body detaches and uses its velocity to reach the target. It was the first time the entire system was tested, which is called an "All Up Round" test (6/30/2022).

We are talking about Mach 5, Russia is already at 27, but don't get complacent, though for the time being, it has everyone nailed to the ground looking for solutions. But the reason is that, Russia is not going to allow any hostile territory, at immediate distance and with a wide surface. The Russians have always understood what is strategic, and they treat these aspects as such. The political suicide of Europe behind the USA, at some point, is going to stop, and the European countries, when they wake up "from the stultifying lethargy" to which they subjected themselves, are going to ask, who was responsible for all this?

The self-flagellation of the Western press escapes the analysis of the most enlightened psychiatrist. Ukraine continues its counter-offensive to repeat its success of Kharkov. "Ukraine tries to extend to Donbas and Kherson the success of its counter-offensive in Kharkov when 206 days of war have passed". But what are these people talking about, are they not able to see a map, this one in the photo, is made by an Ukrainian. There is no Ukrainian military activity.

Ukraine has exported 3.7 million tons of grain since the Black Sea shipping corridor was opened last July, under the pact reached with Russia for the transportation of grain accumulated in its ports since the beginning of the Russian invasion. According to sources of the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure, reproduced by the Ukrinform portal, up to this Sunday a total of 165 cargo ships with grain have left through the ports agreed for this purpose. Ten more ships with about 169,000 tons of grain are expected to depart later in the day. It is clear then that it is not Russia that is responsible for the "famine" in the world. By the way, Ukraine will have no fertilizers for the next grain planting. It has sent most of its grain to Europe, while where it comes from, in Odessa, people are lining up for bread.

Apparently the kangaroos do not want to be more papist than the pope. Australia says it is not considering restricting visas for Russian tourists. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said Sunday that his country is not considering restricting visas for Russian tourists for the time being in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "The sanctions (by Australia) are aimed at the Russian government, those who have perpetrated what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, they are not aimed at Russian citizens,"  Marles said in an interview with the Australian ABC channel, reported by Efe. "It is not something we are considering at the moment," the minister added in reference to sanctions restricting Russian tourists from entering Australia. Marles' statements come after Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky called on Western countries, including the European Union, to stop granting visas, with exceptions, to Russian citizens.

Russian army entrenched on the east side of the Oskil River. In Kupiansk, recaptured last week by Ukrainian forces, clashes with the Russian army entrenched on the east side of the Oskil river continued, Afp journalists noted. According to a statement from the General Staff of the Ukrainian forces, "the enemy carried out during the day four missile strikes and 15 air strikes, as well as more than 20 multiple rocket launcher attacks on civilian and military sites in Ukraine."

In the Kharkov region, an 11-year-old girl was killed by Russian missile fire in the locality of Chuguiv, Governor Oleg Sinegubov said. Also, "Russian invaders shelled" a thermal power station on Saturday morning in Mikolaivka, said Pavlo Kirilenko, governor of the Donetsk region (east) on Telegram. In the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region, "Russians fired Grad (multiple rocket launchers) and heavy artillery all night on the Nikopol district," said local governor Valentin Reznitchenko. And in the south, one person was killed in Dmitrivka by Russian shelling, according to regional governor Vitali Kim. Moscow's military denied the shelling of civilians and said it was "high-precision" strikes on military targets. Mr. Press, the city of Kupiansk has not been recaptured, but half of the city, the other half, is in the hands of the Russians.

The infallibles of British dis-intelligence: Ukraine continues the counteroffensive and Russia recruits more soldiers. Ukraine on Saturday continued attempts to extend to the Donbas and Kherson the success of its counteroffensive in Kharkov, while Moscow continued to reinforce its troops with volunteers from different regions of Russia. "Ukrainian forces continue the counteroffensive in the northeast of the country, while Kremlin troops have established a line of defense between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove," Efe reports from the latest part the British Ministry of Defense. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out, in its turn, that the Ukrainian forces took control of the whole city of Kupiansk, divided by the Oskil river. Actually, in the photo you can see the reality, although it is a little bit too far, because the natural separation is the river. That is one of the reasons for the failure of the offensive, they were never able to take 100% of Kharkiv, there is a 9% in the hands of the Russians.

Iranian cargo planes continue to fly from Tehran to Moscow with an enviable frequency. This week alone (September 12-18), there are at least four cargo flights by Iranian military-owned airlines. Three such flights were made by IL-76 of Pouya Air (owned by Iran's IRGC) and one more flight by a cargo Boeing-747 of Saha Airlines (owned by the Iranian military). Ukraine has claimed to its daddy USA, that Iranian drones are giving a lot of hits to its live forces and means. According to The Wall Street Journal, for the past week Russia has been using Iranian Shahed-136 drones repainted to match Russian color schemes. The unmanned aircraft were spotted over Ukrainian positions in the Kharkov and Kherson regions. Weapons expert Scott Crino believes that the appearance of the Shahed-136 in the Ukrainian war changes Kiev's operational plans. Russia's Iranian drones may become an important counterweight to MLRS HIMARS. The difficulty in countering them lies in the fact that they are quite small and fly very low, so it will be complicated for Ukrainian air defense to detect them. Russia could use these systems to destroy Ukrainian artillery, including U.S.-supplied M-777 howitzers, the U.S. media reports.

On the ground.

Winter is coming in advance. The first snow fell on the Ukrainian part of the Carpathian Mountains. 

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: the Ukrainian army lost more than 280 people on the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction in one day after unsuccessful attempts to attack.

Funeral procession of Yashka, the Maidan revolutionary. Ukrainian soldiers carry a coffin of Roman Kosenko, nicknamed 'Yashka' and active participant in the 2014 Maidan revolution. ("Revolution" = Nazi coup d'état).

The base of one of the most famous PMCs* in the world was destroyed by Russian attacks. On the territory of the deployment point were several tens of American mercenaries who, among other things, took part in the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region. The successful liquidation of the mercenaries of the American PMC "Academy" PMC suggests that in the near future the Ukrainian military will not be able to move to any serious action in the areas bordering the Lugansk region, as well as in the Donetsk region. *(Private Military Company)

Today, near the village of Veselaya Dolina, PMC Wagner liberated a strategically important facility – the 750 kV power substation Donbasskaya. It was one of the key facilities for electricity distribution in the northern regions of Donbass, but it failed in July this year. Now, in the future, it will be possible to carry out restoration work to ensure uninterrupted power supply to the population.

At the anti-government demonstration in Chisinau, suddenly a provocateur has appeared and started shouting, "Slava Ukraine!". In response, they shouted at him, "Go to ... Ukraine" and "Slava Russia." The police took the provocateur away.

This is why the Ukrainians are angry against the Iranians. A 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled gun of the Armed Forces of Ukraine got destroyed by Iranian kamikaze drone Shahed-136 (UAV Gueran'). 

In the southern direction, it became known how the attempt of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance in the Posad-Pokrovsky sector in the Pravdino area ended. With the forces of two companies, supported by 9 tanks and 16 armored fighting vehicles of the 28th mechanized brigade, the Ukrainian Army tried to attack the positions of the Russian Army. But the Russian Airborne Forces repulsed the attack. The Ukrainian troops withdrew with losses in personnel and military equipment. In the center of Kherson, Russian security forces neutralized a group of armed terrorists. Ukrainian formations continue to build up soldiers and military equipment for further counter-offensive attempts in the direction of Kherson.

Russian troops in Donbass discharged the deputy commander of the mechanized battalion of the 93rd mechanized brigade "Cold Yar" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Major Andrey Nikolaychuk. A native of Dnepropetrovsk. 

USA mercenaries of a private company were destroyed in a hotel in Kramatorsk, which is why Ukrainian propagandists so diligently show the affected buildings nearby: they will not show the analysis of the rubble and the search for bodies.

Photo: Military activity today in Ukraine, do you see the blue the Western press pretends to see? I don't.

Russia does not start wars, it ends them. Today, is Russia closer to Kiev, or Ukraine to Moscow, if you have the answer, then we are clear.